AdvaMed’s Election Special: Pundits and Predictions

It’s quite astounding how many public figures, both comedians and television pundits, have got the Bill Clinton impression down. Both Paul Begala and Alex Castellanos—political consultants and commentators—tried their hands (quite well, in fact) at the famous Clinton drawl at AdvaMed 2012’s Oct. 2 lunch address titled “Election 2012: An Insider’s Perspective.” Begala and Castellanos provided their un-filtered predictions on the outcome of this year’s hotly contested presidential election. Begala, a political consultant and commentator who served as an advisor to President Clinton, represented the political left in the discussion, while political commentator and media consultant Castellanos represented the right. Castellanos served as media advisor to President George W. Bush during the 2004 presidential campaign. He also worked for current Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney during his run for governor of Massachusetts in 2002.

Clinton was brought up in reference to his successful speech given at the Democratic National Convention this summer in Charlotte, N.C., but more pertinent to AdvaMed’s audience was Begala’s reminder that “someone in this room is the reason Clinton is alive today.”

Indeed the former president, who had quadruple bypass surgery in 2004, had two coronary stents implanted in his heart in February 2010 after being rushed to the hospital due to chest pains. It was a poignant reminder to those gathered in the room about the important role the industry plays. This industry saves lives. However, in the momentum leading up to a particularly contentious presidential election, this industry is on tenterhooks to see what lies ahead for it in terms of policy, taxation and regulation.

The lunch address was moderated by David Gergen, director of the Center for Public Leadership and a professor of public service at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass. He is also a political consultant and former presidential advisor who served during the administrations of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and Clinton.

The knowledge that there are only 35 days till election was palpable. Whether President Barack Obama or Gov. Mitt Romney wins the election, the medical device community has a very large stake in the outcome. Castellanos was sure that if Gov. Romney enters the White House, he will keep his promise to repeal key sections of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), parts of which already have been implemented. Of course, the major section of the legislation medtech is invested in is the 2.3 percent medical device excise tax, which will kick in beginning Jan. 1, 2013.

Gergen opened the discussion with the inescapable question of polling numbers: President Obama has been showing a lead, but as of the morning of Oct. 2, the lead appeared to have closed by several polling points. In Ohio, however, a key swing state, Romney still remains behind by a significant margin.

“No president since John F. Kennedy has won the presidency without Ohio,” said Gergen. “In fact, no Republican president in history has won the office without Ohio.”

“Obama will win Ohio—and it won’t be close,” rebutted Begala with confidence. “There are people who were McCain voters in 2008, and are now going to vote for Obama. They are a rare species, and they are found in Ohio.”

Begala’s confidence springs from the fact that Ohio is invested deeply in the automotive industry, and no matter which way politicos spin it, the bailout saved a lot of jobs and an industry on which America depends heavily.

Gergen continued with the theme: “Assume Obama wins, he has the Senate, but the House (of Representatives) is still Republican, as it seems might happen. What will Republicans be willing to put on the table?”

Castellanos was confident the bipartisanship that has been exemplified in the medical device community would finally be mirrored in the nation’s government. “A lot of anti-Obama heat in the House will dissipate,” he said. “There will be enough Republicans to stand for tax increases. I think the president will move much farther to the center than Republicans will be required to move to the left.”

“The Democrats will never ever allow the [U.S. Rep. Paul] Ryan style of Medicare,” offered Begala, referring to the current Republican vice presidential candidate’s plan to have government help seniors buy insurance, rather than receive coverage straight from the benefit program. “It will end Medicare as we know it. See, the problem is cost, not Medicare per se.”

Begala explained that the PPACA would never be “finished,” noting that tweaks to the law would continue.

“We passed social security in 1933, and we’re still tinkering,” he said. “That’s how policy works. We will tinker with the PPACA for the next hundred years—even if we replace it, we’ll tinker with whatever we replace it with. It’s just the nature of humanity.”

Driving home that medical device legislation is not a partisan issue, Begala went on to mention several Democratic senators who “really hate that medical device tax,” particularly Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken from Minnesota, which is home to major medical device companies such as Medtronic Inc. and St. Jude Medical Inc. If the tax ever goes back on the table for “tinkering,” there’s little question that there will be a hard push to eliminate it.

Held in Boston, Mass., this year, AdvaMed’s conference is smack in the middle of another state that has money in the medtech game in a major way. Massachusetts is home to 82,000 jobs either directly or indirectly connected to the medical device industry. Within the industry, the average salary is $67,000, 30 percent above the state average. Addressing AdvaMed conference attendees before lunch, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, was clear: “If your company is not in Massachusetts—we want you, too.”

Asked by Gergen to sum up their advice and predictions for the upcoming election, Castellanos closed by saying that the president needs to “engage in a lasting economic solution that he can be part of.” Begala finished with saying that “Obama is hot to compromise and make a deal—but now [voters] are punishing compromise like never before.”